Game Over Gauge

v3.0
Last updated: 2026-04-05 09:46:23 UTC
Regime: Risk_off (48.0%)
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Forecast Conf: MEDIUM Impact: HIGH
Kuwaiti Oil Export Force Majeure
Will Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) or any of its subsidiaries declare Force Majeure on any crude oil export contracts before May 5, 2026?
Likely range: 30.0-65.0%
42.0% PROBABILITY
Total Score
72.3%
▲ 10.0 pts
Financial Stress
75.7%
Base: 62.9%
Geopolitical Risk
62.2%
Weight: 25.0%
Risk Assessment Gauge
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Overall market stress indicator combining financial and geopolitical factors
Nearly Crash
0 25 50 75 100
72.3%
Total Risk
High Yield Credit Spread
Score 12.9
▼ 0.04
3.17% 14.0%
US 10Y Treasury Yield
Score 66.0
▼ 0.11
4.31% 12.0%
US 10Y Real Yield
Score 64.7
▼ 0.11
1.97% 12.0%
VIX Volatility Index
Score 48.6
▼ 0.79
24.54 10.0%
Bitcoin/USD
Score 85.4
▲ 680.69
$67,002 10.0%
Gold Spot Price
Score 100.0
▲ 327.2
$4,703 10.0%
All Risk Components
10 indicators
Indicator Latest Value 5D Change Score Weight Trend (30D) Explanation
High Yield Credit Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
3.17%
▼ 0.04
12.9
14.0% Credit risk premium. Widening indicates stress.
US 10Y Treasury Yield
DGS10
4.31%
▼ 0.11
66.0
12.0% Benchmark risk-free rate. Rising yields signal tightening.
US 10Y Real Yield
DFII10
1.97%
▼ 0.11
64.7
12.0% Inflation-adjusted risk-free rate.
VIX Volatility Index
VIXCLS
24.54
▼ 0.79
48.6
10.0% Market's expectation of future volatility.
Bitcoin/USD
BITCOIN
$67,002
▲ 680.69
85.4
10.0% Digital asset risk proxy.
Gold Spot Price
GOLD
$4,703
▲ 327.2
100.0
10.0% Traditional safe-haven asset.
S&P 500 Index
SPX
6582.69
▲ 105.53
100.0
10.0% Broad US equity market proxy.
WTI Crude Oil
WTI_OIL
$112.06
▲ 17.58
100.0
8.0% Energy/inflation proxy.
10Y Term Premium
TERM_PREMIUM_10Y
0.72%
▲ 0.04
56.8
7.0% Compensation for duration risk.
Dollar Index
DXY
100.03
▲ 0.13
0.0
7.0% US dollar strength indicator.