Defensive Income
Objective: Capital preservation and liquidity during severe geopolitical stress and high risk-off regime.
Rebalance: Monthly
| Asset / Ticker | Weight | Rationale |
|---|
| Tokenised T-Bills (BUIDL) | 50% | Highest quality short-term liquidity, insulated from credit and duration risk. |
| Intermediate Treasuries (IEF) | 30% | Flight-to-quality beneficiary; yields have fallen (d5=-0.11), signaling defensive demand. |
| Gold (GLD) | 15% | Hedge against extreme geopolitical escalation; price at 100 score indicates strong momentum. |
| Cash USD (CASH) | 5% | Ultimate liquidity for maximum optionality and rebalancing. |
Extreme defense. Zero equity or credit exposure. Relies on Treasury rally and gold's safe-haven status. Monitor US-Israel-Iran developments closely.
Balanced Core
Objective: Risk-balanced exposure with heavy tilt to quality assets, accepting minimal measured equity risk.
Rebalance: Quarterly
| Asset / Ticker | Weight | Rationale |
|---|
| Intermediate Treasuries (IEF) | 40% | Core defensive anchor benefiting from falling yields in risk-off move. |
| US Broad Equity (VTI) | 25% | Minimal core US equity exposure for long-term participation, heavily underweight. |
| Gold (GLD) | 20% | Significant allocation to non-correlated asset with strong momentum (score 100). |
| Tokenised T-Bills (USDY) | 15% | Short-term liquidity and yield, reducing portfolio duration and volatility. |
Severely underweight equity vs. traditional balanced portfolio. Gold acts as a primary hedge. IEF provides income and defensive characteristics.
Selective Risk
Objective: Measured equity beta with concentrated hedges in gold and Treasuries against severe geopolitical drivers.
Rebalance: Quarterly
| Asset / Ticker | Weight | Rationale |
|---|
| US Broad Equity (VTI) | 45% | Substantial but selective equity risk, expecting eventual stabilization. |
| Intermediate Treasuries (IEF) | 25% | Defensive ballast and yield; real yield remains elevated at 1.97. |
| Gold (GLD) | 20% | Direct hedge against Middle East conflict escalation and broad risk-off. |
| Tokenised T-Bills (SGOV) | 10% | Liquidity sleeve for tactical adjustments as VIX remains elevated (~24.5). |
Maintains significant equity exposure but with 55% in defensive assets. High gold allocation is critical insurance. Avoid international equity and credit.